Nigeria to be 800 pound gorilla The African mobile subscriber base is expected to grow to more than 425 million by the end of 2012, from about 229 million at the end of this year, according to research firm BMI-TechKnowlege`s latest Communication Technologies Handbook.

The Middle East is not far behind, with the handbook, now in its 15th year, forecasting that the mobile market there will reach 416 million subscribers by 2012. This is the first time the Middle East has been included in the handbook.

BMI-T senior telecommunications analyst , the handbook`s editor, says that Nigeria will be the "800-pound gorilla" in Africa, with 93 million subscribers by 2012, although eastern and western Africa will grow at a faster rate than Nigeria.

Turkey, with 54 million subscribers, dominates the Middle East at present, but Pakistan will be the new leader in the combined Middle East and Africa in 2010, when it is expected to reach 121 million subscribers. It is forecast to reach 166 million in 2012.

Hurst says most of the greenfields opportunities for South African operators have dried up. "They`ll be looking for growth through acquisition." He adds that they might look at other smaller states like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, although they are small markets. Potential African markets include Sudan and Libya but Hurst says the operators might also try to get a foothold in the Asian market.

Tags: Research  Mobile