Twice as much broadband next year

MD Arthur Goldstuck says Telkom`s ADSL is the biggest success so far, seeing far more rapid rollout than ... forecast. ADSL holds 66% of the market, and he says this is unlikely to diminish in 2006.

"Among SMEs, it ... works, at [an affordable] price. For consumers it remains expensive." He adds that once continued demand from SMEs and pent-up demand from high-end consumers abate, Telkom will be forced to address pricing, "unless [Icasa] steps in first.

Thanks to broadband`s barriers to entry, the broadband market will, at projected growth rates through 2008, still only form 14% of total Internet users, he adds. Goldstuck predicts another two broadband offerings will join the ranks next year, while the SNO "may well launch wholesale services that open the way for more niche operators".

MyADSL recounts a report by BMI-T some months ago, which forecast 150 000 ADSL lines in 2006, but quotes aggressive Telkom targets of around 250 000 ADSL customers by the end of 2007, and between 680 000 and 800 000 by 2008, unveiled at Telkom`s interim results. To this end, Telkom is installing 4 000 new lines per week. MyADSL rates the chances of HSDPA efforts by cell networks to counter ADSL`s dominance, which it says provides a further counter-measure against premature "saturation" of the market, due to high cost.

SA`s current broadband penetration rate of 0.3% is well below the OECD average of 11.8%, the site states.