Experts predict SA bandwidth prices will drop next year NEW CABLE NETWORKS coming soon should dramatically cut the cost of bandwidth in SA. That`s according to industry players who were addressing the BMI-Techknowledge Telecoms Metamorphosis Forum recently, when telecoms experts gave their predictions for the industry in the next few years.

Mike Brierley, CEO of MTN Network Solutions, predicted a drop in bandwidth prices next year, as well as the imminent demise of the dial-up connection. The enabler? Metro fibre. "Metro fibre is a revolution. It will lead to massive drops in cost," he said.

According to Brierley, in 2009, metro fibre networks will be accessible in all high density business areas, replacing ATM and E1 circuits.

He predicted mobile operators MTN and Vodacom will enter the fibre transmission market, resulting in Telkom and Neotel dropping prices to retain their market share.

Undersea cabling will also contribute to the price drop, he said, and the rest of Africa will get more attention as more realise it is a large untapped market.

Brierley foresees market changes also contributing to the predicted lower prices. "Next year is the year we are going to see a real competitive market."

Ermano Quartero, managing executive of Vodacom Business, predicted that in the future, broadband prices could drop by one third every three to four years.

LOWER PRICES, BETTER CONNECTIVITY

Fibre was the dominant theme of the event, with both Richard Came, executive director of Dark Fibre Africa, and Angus Hay, CTO of Neotel, saying new fibre roll-outs would lead to faster connectivity and better prices.

Came said neither wireless connectivity nor copper wire are capable of what the modern household needs, due to rapidly moving technologies that demand increasing bandwidth.

"We are in a very interesting phase," he remarked.

A THIRD NATIONAL OPERATOR

Another prediction to emerge at the event, although not slated for next year, is the emergence of a third national operator.

Came believes that by 2012, SA will have three to four national operators. However, speakers noted Telkom will be around for a long time to come. "Telkom will still dominate," said Quartero.

THE VANS RULING

Commenting on the recent Vans ruling, Brierley said he did not know why the Department of Communications was fighting it as self-provision is expensive, and smaller players simply did not have the resources to create their own infrastructure. "It`s not going to change anything," he said.

Came believes deregulation will lead the government to look at taxation rather than investment, and Quartero predicted we will see more niche players in the Vans sector. Leona Mentz, head of regulatory compliance for Cell C, pointed out that communications is a difficult market to enter. She explained that market liberalisation is not enough, and said more had to be done to allow for real competition.

DAMP SQUIBS

Brierley also lamented the fact that WiMax had not proved nearly as successful as the hype surrounding it, saying it was a very expensive technology for the consumer.He did recommend, however, that alternate players lacking the money for infrastructure should find a niche such as providing WiMax or CDMA to very densely populated areas.

He also commented that VoIP had not been as successful as people had hoped. "VOIP has been a big disappointment in SA due to structural issues in the SA interconnect model". VoIP has however become the key technology in the core network and will contribute to a significant reduction in voice costs.

Despite Brierley`s view on VoIP, Quartero sees fixed mobile convergence dominating the telecoms industry in the near future.