Cyber warfare could be the norm one day, rather than the exception

There is a clear connection between cyber security and national security, according to Kenneth Geers, cyber subject matter expert for the US Naval Criminal Investigative Service.

Geers will explore this further at the ITWeb Security Summit, in May, in his presentation: ‘Cyber Warfare: Beyond Theory’.

Geers will discuss the rise of non-state actors in the Internet era, from the Chechen rebels to Anonymous.

He says cyber attacks are the most flexible weapon the world has seen, because cyber attacks can be used for propaganda, espionage, impersonation and even the destruction of critical infrastructure.

However, Geers cautions that the meaning of the word ‘war’ should not be confused with the term ‘cyber war’. “War is organised, armed aggression between nations or large groups within a nation. We are not there yet with cyber attacks. But Stuxnet, the cyber attack on the Iranian nuclear programme, provided us a glimpse of the future, in which a significant part of war will be battles over IT infrastructure.”

Technology being used to amass power and control in the form of cyber war is not new. Geers says Vietnam was the world’s fi rst ‘TV war’, where live footage of the horrors of war dramatically affected the course of the conflict.

“The Kosovo war in 1999 was the world’s first ‘Internet war’, which demonstrated that world citizens not only have the power to follow current events in real-time, but they also have the power to influence them. An Internet-connected computer is the historical equivalent of both a printing press and a radio transmitter.

“Last, but not least, non-state hacker groups scored modest but tangible successes against NATO cyber infrastructure during the conflict, by clogging NATO e-mail servers with viruses and keeping NATO Web sites off the air via denial of service.” He adds the Stuxnet attack proved that even the most isolated and protected computer networks in the world can be successfully attacked by unknown hackers.

According to Geers, hactivist groups such as Anonymous demonstrate they can affect the course of history by targeting nation-states. He points out that Anonymous defaced the Syrian Ministry of Defence Web site, by warning Syrian soldiers of war crimes and calling on them to fight the government.

WikiLeaks proved the life expectancy of secrets, including classified information, is shorter than before. “This demonstrates the power of computer networks to amplify information. WikiLeaks, along with Facebook and Twitter, is widely credited with helping to start the Arab Spring.”

Geers says this year could see more critical infrastructure attacks, ranging from attacks on power utilities to elections. Everything that is connected to the Web is open to attack from unknown hackers anywhere in the world.

“Not long ago, there were many cyber war sceptics, but Stuxnet, the successful cyber attack on the Iranian nuclear programme, has largely silenced their voices. Now, national security planners are busy rethinking national security concepts in light of these changes,” notes Geers, who adds that these attacks could become the norm rather than the exception.